culture
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Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
24h Vol
$164.1K
Liquidity
$43.4K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $268.7K in 24h volume, and $5.5K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$268.7K
Liquidity
$5.5K
This market asks whether Tom Holland will be officially named as the next James Bond by June 30, 2026. It is worth watching because the Bond role is one of the most closely followed casting decisions in film, and the answer depends on a formal studio announcement rather than fan speculation.
The event question is simple: will Amazon MGM Studios officially announce Tom Holland as the next actor to play James Bond before the deadline of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if Holland is the first official Bond announcement in that window; if someone else is announced first, or no Bond is announced by then, the result is No or 'No Bond chosen' under the rules. The title names Tom Holland, a major film star best known for playing Spider-Man, and James Bond, the long-running spy character whose casting often attracts global attention.
There is uncertainty because studios do not always confirm franchise casting on a fixed timetable, and Bond has historically been a high-profile, closely guarded decision. Readers care because the role carries major cultural weight and usually prompts intense speculation about age, tone, and the future direction of the series. The market is pricing a disagreement over whether Holland is a realistic choice and, more importantly, whether any official announcement will arrive before the cutoff.
The biggest price movers would be an official Amazon MGM Studios announcement naming Tom Holland, a formal statement confirming another actor instead, or credible reporting that a decision has been made and will be announced soon. Public comments from the studio, producers, or Holland himself could also shift expectations if they clearly point toward or away from his candidacy. If the Bond franchise remains quiet as the deadline approaches, the market will tend to reflect the growing chance that no announcement comes in time.
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24h Vol
$164.1K
Liquidity
$43.4K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the first official announcement of the next James Bond, with Amazon MGM Studios listed as the primary resolution source and credible consensus reporting allowed as a fallback. Readers should check whether the announcement explicitly names Tom Holland, because later changes or follow-up commentary do not matter under the rules once the first official choice is made. The deadline is June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, so anything published after that point should not count, and the main ambiguity risk is a vague announcement that does not clearly identify the actor as Bond.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $268.7K in 24h volume, and $5.5K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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