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⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
6%
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US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Vol
$2.7M
Liquidity
$570.4K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 59%, $8.3K in 24h volume, and $15.8K in liquidity.
Probability
59%
24h Volume
$8.3K
Liquidity
$15.8K
This market asks whether the Trump administration will declassify any previously unpublished files about extraterrestrial life or unexplained aerial phenomena before the June 30 deadline. The question is tied to a specific date and a specific type of government action, so the key issue is not whether UFO-related material exists, but whether new material is officially declassified in time.
For this market, a “Yes” requires the Trump administration to make available by 11:59 PM ET on June 30 any files that were not already public and that pertain to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena. The description makes clear that the relevant action must be implemented within the timeframe; a promise, announcement, or plan that is not carried out before the deadline does not count. The market also says the primary source of truth is official U.S. government information, with credible consensus reporting as a fallback if needed.
There is uncertainty because declassification is an administrative and legal process that can move in different ways, especially when it involves national security, intelligence, or defense material. Readers may care because the topic sits at the intersection of government transparency, UFO/UAP policy, and public curiosity about what the executive branch is willing to release. The market is pricing disagreement about whether any new release will happen at all before the cutoff, not about whether UFO-related records have ever existed.
Concrete developments that could move the market include an official White House, Defense Department, or other executive-branch release of new documents that meet the market’s definition, or a formal declassification notice that is clearly implemented before the deadline. Price can also shift if officials announce a release schedule that seems likely to land in time, especially if the records are described as previously unavailable and related to UAP or extraterrestrial life. On the other side, statements indicating no such release will occur, or indications that any planned disclosure will slip past June 30, would push the market toward No.
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24h Vol
$2.7M
Liquidity
$570.4K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 59% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the exact wording of any announcement and whether the material is actually made public before 11:59 PM ET on June 30. The market’s resolution rules put official U.S. government sources first, so the important question is whether the declassification is documented by the government itself or only discussed publicly. A common ambiguity here is timing: an announcement alone is not enough if the files are not implemented or posted within the market window, and material that was already public before this market’s deadline would not qualify as new.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 59%, $8.3K in 24h volume, and $15.8K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 59%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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