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Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
24h Vol
$164.1K
Liquidity
$44K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 11%, $37.8 in 24h volume, and $21.2K in liquidity.
Probability
11%
24h Volume
$37.8
Liquidity
$21.2K
This market asks whether Variational’s governance token will be valued above $2 billion in fully diluted terms one day after it launches. The question matters because the answer depends not just on whether the token appears, but on how the market prices the entire supply shortly after trading begins.
Variational is the named project in this market, and the event is its governance token launch. Resolution depends on the token being publicly transferable and tradable, then on the token’s fully diluted valuation at 4:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. The market resolves Yes only if total supply multiplied by the token price is greater than $2 billion at that time; if no token launches by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves No.
There is real uncertainty around both timing and valuation. Even if Variational does launch a token, the price one day later can be far above or far below the threshold, so traders are pricing the odds that the project reaches a large, liquid valuation quickly after launch.
The biggest price-moving development would be any official announcement that Variational will launch a governance token, since the market cannot resolve Yes without an actual public launch. After launch, the token’s listed price, early exchange access, circulating market interest, and the size of the total supply all matter because the market is judged on FDV, not just the trading price of a small float. Any sign that the token is being widely traded on liquid venues could also shift expectations about whether the valuation will clear $2 billion one day later.
The current market price implies roughly a 11% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$164.1K
Liquidity
$44K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View marketReaders should verify whether Variational has announced a token launch, whether the token is actively transferable and publicly tradable, and what the launch date actually is. The resolution uses the most liquid price source available and measures the token at 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch, so the exact timestamp and source matter. If the project never launches a token by the deadline, the outcome is automatically No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 11%, $37.8 in 24h volume, and $21.2K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
10.5%
No
89.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 11%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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