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⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
5%
-1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Vol
$3M
Liquidity
$743.7K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $25.7K in 24h volume, and $48.4K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$25.7K
Liquidity
$48.4K
This market asks whether Israel Katz will be the next person formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the country’s next parliamentary election. Katz is a senior Israeli politician, so the question is really about whether he can move from cabinet-level influence to the top job under Israel’s coalition-based system. The market stays open until the next government is sworn in, or until the December 31, 2027 cutoff if no qualifying prime minister has taken office.
The resolution hinges on one specific outcome: the next individual officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 legislative election, or after any earlier election if one is called. Israel’s Knesset elections determine who can build a governing coalition, but the market only counts the person who is actually sworn in, not a caretaker or interim leader. If nobody is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.”
Israel’s parliamentary system makes the identity of the next prime minister uncertain because the largest party does not automatically produce the winner, and coalition bargaining can reshape the outcome. That is especially relevant for a figure like Israel Katz, whose path to the premiership would depend on party leadership dynamics, alliance-building, and the post-election balance of power. The market is pricing a concrete political question: whether Katz emerges as the coalition’s choice to lead the next government.
Official election timing, changes in party leadership, coalition agreements, and any formal announcement about who will be tasked with forming a government can all affect this market. If an early election is called, the resolution window shifts to the government formed after that vote, which can change the set of plausible candidates. Statements from Israel’s president, election results, and any sworn-in government led by a different person would all be especially important for this market.
Related markets
-1%
24h Vol
$3M
Liquidity
$743.7K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important source of truth is the official information from the Government of Israel, since the market resolves to the person formally sworn in as prime minister. Readers should pay close attention to whether an election is held on October 27, 2026 as scheduled or whether an earlier election is called, because that changes the resolution path. It is also worth checking whether any leader is only serving in an acting or caretaker capacity, since that does not count for this market. If no official swearing-in happens before the deadline, the market resolves to “Other.”
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $25.7K in 24h volume, and $48.4K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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