Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?. The market currently shows a live probability of 64%, $15K in 24h volume, and $5.9K in liquidity.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Claude Mythos model added to the Arena.AI Coding Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the Coding leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard whose official name includes “Mythos” will qualify. A model whose official name does not include “Mythos” may also qualify if Anthropic officially and unambiguously identifies it as a “Mythos-class” model or substantially similar Mythos variant. Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Opus, or another non-Mythos variant will not qualify unless Anthropic separately provides such official Mythos identification. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".