Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $8.1K in 24h volume, and $31K in liquidity.

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This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.