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Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
24h Vol
$164.1K
Liquidity
$43.4K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $358.2 in 24h volume, and $7.1K in liquidity.
Probability
22%
24h Volume
$358.2
Liquidity
$7.1K
This market asks whether the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment reading for June 2026 will land in a narrow band: 46.0 through 48.9. That matters because the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers is a widely watched monthly gauge of how households are feeling about the economy, jobs, inflation, and spending conditions. The result will be pinned to the final June release, not the preliminary reading.
The event here is the final June 2026 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the final reported index is at least 46.0 and below 49.0, rounded to one decimal place as published. The scheduled release date in the market rules is June 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, and that final release is the source of truth.
This specific bracket is close to a level that can be hit or missed by a small move, so the uncertainty is mostly about where June sentiment ends up within a tight range. Readers follow this index because it is one of the standard monthly snapshots of consumer confidence in the United States, and small shifts can reflect changing views on prices, incomes, and the broader economic outlook. The market is effectively pricing whether June’s final reading settles in that mid-40s zone or lands outside it.
The price will move as traders update expectations for the final June print versus the surrounding range of possible outcomes. Anything that changes the expected sentiment reading before June 26 — such as incoming inflation data, labor-market headlines, consumer spending signals, or the tone of the preliminary Michigan release if it becomes available — can push the market toward or away from the 46.0 to 48.9 band. Because the market resolves on the final monthly figure, later revisions to expectations about the final release matter more than general economic chatter.
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24h Vol
$164.1K
Liquidity
$43.4K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 22% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to check is the final University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers release for June 2026, not the preliminary number and not any other consumer-confidence survey. The market rules say the resolution source is the University of Michigan data page, and the published reading is used to one decimal place. If the June figure is delayed, readers should verify whether the market rolls forward to the next scheduled report or falls back to the most recent prior month, as the rules specify.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $358.2 in 24h volume, and $7.1K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
21.5%
No
78.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 26, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for June 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for June 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on June 26, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 22%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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