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24h Vol
$150.8K
Liquidity
$41.9K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketCrypto
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $978.1 in 24h volume, and $6.2K in liquidity.
Probability
6%
24h Volume
$978.1
Liquidity
$6.2K
This market asks whether Adam Back will be definitively confirmed as Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, by the end of 2026. It is worth watching because the question touches one of crypto’s longest-running identity mysteries, and the outcome would need something much stronger than rumor or internet speculation.
The title names Adam Back, a longtime Bitcoin and cryptography figure, and Satoshi Nakamoto, the unknown person or group behind Bitcoin’s original release. This market resolves to Yes only if definitive evidence becomes public by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET showing that Adam Back is Satoshi, or if Satoshi is conclusively identified as a group and Adam Back is shown to have been part of that group. If no such evidence appears by the deadline, the market resolves No.
This market exists because Satoshi’s identity remains unresolved and has been the subject of years of claims, theories, and competing interpretations. Adam Back is often discussed in those theories because he is an early cryptography pioneer and a visible Bitcoin-adjacent figure, but the market’s rules require hard evidence, not reputation or pattern-matching. That creates a real gap between plausible-sounding speculation and the much stricter standard needed for resolution.
The price would move if a credible, well-documented disclosure, signed evidence, or other strong proof emerged tying Adam Back to Satoshi Nakamoto. It could also move if credible reporting narrowed the field toward or away from Adam Back, even if it stopped short of meeting the market’s full resolution bar. By contrast, anonymous posts, old forum claims, memes, or vague ‘revelations’ should matter less unless they are backed by verifiable evidence that matches the market rules.
The current market price implies roughly a 6% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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-17.2%
24h Vol
$150.8K
Liquidity
$41.9K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketThe most important thing to verify is the resolution standard: the market explicitly says the primary source is a consensus of credible reporting, and only definitive evidence counts. Readers should watch for whether any new material is public, whether it is independently corroborated, and whether it actually identifies Adam Back as Satoshi or as a member of a confirmed group. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, so anything that appears after that point should not count for this market.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $978.1 in 24h volume, and $6.2K in liquidity.
Track live crypto prediction markets covering Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, regulation changes, and major blockchain events across the prediction market ecosystem.
Yes
5.8%
No
94.2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 6%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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