Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Cilic vs. Shapovalov: Match O/U 23.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $231.3 in 24h volume.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$231.3
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
49%
Change
-1%
High
50%
Low
49%
Over moved from 50% to 49% over the last month, trading between 49% and 50%.
Over price history from Polymarket CLOB.
8 points
This market asks whether Marin Cilic and Denis Shapovalov will play at least 24 total games in their Libema Open match. Because tennis totals can swing on set length, tiebreaks, and whether the match finishes normally, this is a straightforward but detail-sensitive event to watch. The market is currently priced overwhelmingly toward Over, so the key question is whether the match is completed and how many games the final score produces.
The matchup is Cilic vs. Shapovalov at the Libema Open, with the scheduled start listed as June 8, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. Settlement is based on official ATP statistics and counts the total number of games completed across all sets: 24 or more games resolves to Over, while 23 or fewer resolves to Under. Any tiebreak, including a Champions Super Tiebreak, counts as one game for this total.
Tennis totals are uncertain because a match can be short if one player wins comfortably, or long if the sets are tight and go to tiebreaks. Cilic and Shapovalov are both established players, so readers may care about whether the matchup looks competitive enough to push the total past the 23.5 line. The market is also sensitive to completion rules, since an unfinished match or a pre-play cancellation resolves 50-50 rather than to a normal Over or Under result.
The biggest mover is the actual shape of the match: straight-set wins, long set tiebreaks, or a deciding set can change the total quickly. If the match is delayed, shortened, retired, or not completed, that can matter as much as the scoreline because the rules send incomplete or canceled matches to a 50-50 settlement. Lineup changes, late withdrawals, or any official schedule update from the tournament can also affect how the market is priced before play begins.
The current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Before the market resolves, check whether the match officially starts, whether it is completed, and what the final ATP scoreline shows. The source of truth is official ATP statistics, not a live blog or unofficial scoreboard, and the special 50-50 rule applies if play begins but does not finish, or if the match is canceled or delayed beyond seven days without a result. Readers should also keep an eye on whether a Champions Super Tiebreak appears, since it still counts as one game under these rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Cilic vs. Shapovalov: Match O/U 23.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $231.3 in 24h volume.
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Over
100%
Under
0%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marin Cilic and Denis Shapovalov in the Libema Open, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP statistics.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Spread
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7/6/2026
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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