Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Marin Cilic vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $776.8 in 24h volume.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$776.8
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
42.5%
Change
-25.5%
High
68%
Low
42%
Over 2.5 moved from 68% to 42.5% over the last month, trading between 42% and 68%.
Over 2.5 price history from Polymarket CLOB.
8 points
This market is about whether Marin Cilic and Denis Shapovalov will play a best-of-three-set tennis match that reaches at least three completed sets at the Libema Open. Because tennis matches can end in straight sets, go the distance, or be interrupted by weather or scheduling issues, the total-sets line is the key settlement question here.
The title names Marin Cilic and Denis Shapovalov, two established ATP players, and the event is their match at the Libema Open, scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. The market settles on the total number of sets completed in that match: Over 2.5 means three or more completed sets, while Under 2.5 means the match ends in two sets or fewer. A super tie-break counts as one set for this market, and if the match is started but not finished, or if it is canceled or delayed beyond the stated window without a result, the market resolves 50-50.
This line is popular because men’s tennis matches are often volatile: some matchups are decided quickly, while others turn into close three-set battles. Cilic and Shapovalov are both capable of powerful serving and momentum swings, which makes the number of sets more uncertain than the winner alone. The market is essentially pricing the chance that this particular matchup stays short or extends into a full three-set contest under ATP match rules.
Anything that changes the expected match length can move this market, especially lineup or health information before start time, late withdrawals, or confirmation that the match will be played on schedule. Once play begins, the price can shift quickly with early set results: a dominant first set points toward Under, while a split of the first two sets or a long, tight second set tends to support Over. Because the rules count a super tie-break as one set, any format-specific result that changes how many sets are completed can also matter at settlement.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, readers should verify the official ATP match result for this specific Libema Open fixture, since that is the source of truth for settlement. The most important details are whether the match actually starts, whether it finishes, and how any super tie-break is recorded in the official statistics. The end date shown on the page is June 15, 2026, which matches the seven-day delay rule in the description, so unresolved postponements after that window would trigger the 50-50 outcome rather than a standard Over or Under result.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Marin Cilic vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $776.8 in 24h volume.
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Over 2.5
100%
Under 2.5
0%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marin Cilic and Denis Shapovalov in the Libema Open, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP statistics.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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