Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $692.9K in 24h volume.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$692.9K
Liquidity
$0
This market is about the ATP Libema Open match between Marin Cilic and Denis Shapovalov, two established tour players whose meeting is set by the tournament draw and match schedule. Because tennis settles by a single match result, any late change in availability, retirement, or cancellation can determine how this market resolves.
The question here is simple: which player advances in the Libema Open, Marin Cilic or Denis Shapovalov. The scheduled start is June 8, 2026 at 4:00AM ET, and the market is tied to that specific head-to-head match rather than the tournament as a whole. Resolution follows the market rules: the winner on the ATP Tour’s official information is the outcome, while a postponed or canceled match can trigger the special 50-50 handling described in the rules.
Matches like this can be uncertain because tennis outcomes depend on draw position, form, surface fit, and whether both players actually start and finish the match. Cilic and Shapovalov are both recognizable names with different styles, so readers may care about whether a veteran power game or a more explosive all-court approach comes through on grass at the Libema Open. The market is pricing the chance of one player advancing, while also reflecting the possibility of unusual settlement cases such as a walkover, retirement, or delay.
The biggest price movers are straightforward: the match result itself, any official withdrawal news, or a retirement/default/disqualification that changes who advances. Because this is a grass-court event at the Libema Open, lineup and readiness matter, so confirmation that both players are active and scheduled is important before the first point is played. If the match is delayed, shortened by weather, or rescheduled, that can also matter because the rules specify a 7-day window and special treatment for matches that are not played or not completed.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market settles, check the official ATP Tour match page or other official tournament information for the final result, because that is the primary source of truth. Pay close attention to whether the match actually begins, whether one player advances after a retirement or default, and whether any walkover occurs before play starts, since those situations are treated differently in the rules. If there is no winner within seven days of the scheduled date, or if the match is canceled or ends in a tie, the market’s 50-50 rule becomes relevant, so the exact status of the fixture matters more than a simple scoreline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $692.9K in 24h volume.
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Marin Cilic
100%
Denis Shapovalov
0%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marin Cilic and Denis Shapovalov in the Libema Open, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marin Cilic' if Marin Cilic advances against Denis Shapovalov. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Marin Cilic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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Spread
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7/6/2026
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