Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 36%, $7.2K in 24h volume, and $40.7K in liquidity.
Probability
36%
24h Volume
$7.2K
Liquidity
$40.7K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
36%
Change
-28%
High
64%
Low
34%
Zverev moved from 64% to 36% over the full available history, trading between 34% and 64%.
Zverev price history from Polymarket CLOB.
7 points
This market is about the ATP Roland Garros match between Alexander Zverev and Flavio Cobolli, with the outcome decided by the set handicap rather than who simply wins the match. Because tennis markets can turn on straight-sets results, long five-set battles, or even a retirement, the exact final score matters as much as the winner.
The question here is whether Zverev will beat Cobolli by at least three sets on the official completed scoreline. If Zverev wins by 3 or more sets than Cobolli, the market resolves to Zverev; otherwise it resolves to Cobolli. The match was originally scheduled for June 7, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET at Roland Garros, and settlement is based on the official Grand Slam result.
A set handicap creates a different kind of uncertainty than a simple match-winner market. Zverev can be the stronger name on paper and still fail to cover if Cobolli takes enough sets, extends the match, or if the contest ends in a way that makes the final scoreline closer than expected. Readers care because tennis scoring is highly structured, and one long set or a retirement can change the settlement outcome even when the favorite advances.
Anything that changes expectations for the number of sets can move this market, especially lineup, fitness, or in-match form affecting whether the match looks likely to be one-sided or competitive. If the match is delayed, starts and then remains unfinished, or is canceled before play begins, the rules say it settles 50-50, which is an important event-specific risk for anyone following this page. Because the market is tied to the final completed score, a straight-sets win, a four-set match, or a five-set match all have very different implications for the handicap.
The current market price implies roughly a 36% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Check whether the match is officially played to completion and whether the final score is recorded in the Grand Slam’s official results, since that is the source of truth for settlement. The key rule to verify is the set margin: Zverev must finish at least three sets ahead of Cobolli for a Zverev resolution, and any incomplete match or long postponement triggers the 50-50 rule. If there is a retirement, walkover, cancellation, or extended delay, the market’s special settlement language matters more than general expectations about who was ahead when play stopped.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 36%, $7.2K in 24h volume, and $40.7K in liquidity.
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Zverev
36%
Cobolli
64%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Zverev and Flavio Cobolli in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for June 7, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Zverev" if Alexander Zverev wins by 3 or more sets than Flavio Cobolli, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Cobolli." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 36%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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