Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Fery vs. Bu: Match O/U 21.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 25%, $14.1 in 24h volume, and $108.7 in liquidity.
Probability
25%
24h Volume
$14.1
Liquidity
$108.7
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
75.5%
Change
+25.5%
High
75.5%
Low
50%
Under moved from 50% to 75.5% over the last month, trading between 50% and 75.5%.
Under price history from Polymarket CLOB.
8 points
This market asks whether Arthur Fery and Yunchaokete Bu will play a match that adds up to at least 22 total games. Because the line is set at 21.5, a straightforward two-set win can still land either side depending on how competitive the sets are, so the scoreline matters as much as the winner. The market is tied to a Birmingham Challenger match originally scheduled for June 6, 2026, with settlement based on official Challenger statistics.
The event is the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Yunchaokete Bu in Birmingham. The outcome is based on the total number of games completed across all sets: 22 or more games resolves to Over, while 21 or fewer resolves to Under. Tiebreaks, including a Champions or super tiebreak, count as one game for this market, and if the match starts but does not finish, the market resolves 50-50.
A games total like 21.5 sits right in the middle of a match that could end quickly or stretch into close sets, so there is genuine uncertainty about the final tally. Tennis matches at Challenger level can swing between routine straight-set results and long, tight battles with multiple deuce games or tiebreaks, which makes the total sensitive to matchup style, serving strength, and whether the players are evenly matched on the day. The market is pricing that uncertainty rather than simply asking who wins.
Anything that changes expectations for match length can move this market: a late withdrawal, an official scheduling change, or word that the match format will differ from what was expected. If either player is known to be serving well, returning well, or producing many tiebreaks in similar matches, that generally points toward a higher game total, while a mismatch or a one-sided first set would point toward fewer games. Because the market settles from the official match record, the exact final score and whether any tiebreaks were played are the key facts that matter.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 25% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to verify is whether the Birmingham match is actually played, completed, or delayed beyond the market’s 7-day window, because unfinished or unplayed matches can resolve 50-50 under the rules. Readers should also check the official Challenger result for the final set scores and total games, since that is the source of truth for settlement. If a super tiebreak or other abbreviated format is used, remember that it counts as one game in this market, which can change the total more than a casual score glance might suggest.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Fery vs. Bu: Match O/U 21.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 25%, $14.1 in 24h volume, and $108.7 in liquidity.
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Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Yunchaokete Bu in the Birmingham, originally scheduled for June 6, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 25%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Spread
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7/6/2026
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Liquidity
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7/6/2026
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