Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Onclin vs. Marozsan: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $103 in 24h volume.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$103
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
31.5%
Change
-18.5%
High
50%
Low
30%
Over moved from 50% to 31.5% over the last month, trading between 30% and 50%.
Over price history from Polymarket CLOB.
4 points
This market tracks the first set in the Stuttgart Open match between Gauthier Onclin and Fabian Marozsan. The key question is simple: will the opening set reach at least 11 games, or will it finish at 10 or fewer?
The contract is tied to the ATP match between Onclin and Marozsan, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. It settles on the total games completed in the first set only, with a tiebreak counting as one game toward the total. An 11- to 13-game first set would go Over, while a 6-4, 6-3, or any set finishing at 10 games or fewer would go Under; if the first set is never completed, the market resolves 50-50.
Tennis totals often hinge on how evenly matched the players are, how well they serve, and whether the set goes to 6-4, 7-5, or a tiebreak. In a matchup like this, the uncertainty is not about the whole match but about whether the opening set turns into a long one or ends quickly. That is the disagreement the market is pricing: a straightforward set versus one that pushes past the 10.5-game threshold.
The biggest swing comes from the actual first-set scoreline: early breaks of serve point toward the Under, while a hold-heavy start, a 6-6 path, or any tiebreak points toward the Over. If the match is delayed, canceled, or suspended before the first set finishes, the settlement rule becomes important because the market may resolve 50-50 instead of on the score. Because resolution uses official ATP results, anything that affects the official first-set result, including retirement or an incomplete set, matters more than pre-match speculation.
The current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Check that the first set is actually completed and that the official ATP scoring matches the published result, since that is the source of truth for settlement. The 10.5 line means 11 total games or more is Over, and 10 or fewer is Under, so a tiebreak, retirements, or an unfinished set can change the outcome mechanics. Also note the fallback rules: if the first set is not completed, or if the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond seven days without starting, the market resolves 50-50.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Onclin vs. Marozsan: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $103 in 24h volume.
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Over
100%
Under
0%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Gauthier Onclin and Fabian Marozsan in the Stuttgart Open, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Spread
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7/6/2026
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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