Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Tommy Paul vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: Total Sets O/U 2.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, $2.2K in 24h volume.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$2.2K
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
50.5%
Change
-15%
High
66%
Low
24.5%
Over 2.5 moved from 65.5% to 50.5% over the last day, trading between 24.5% and 66%.
Over 2.5 price history from Polymarket CLOB.
45 points
This market is about whether Tommy Paul and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard will need three or more completed sets in their Stuttgart Open match. Because tennis match length can swing sharply depending on serve quality, tiebreaks, and whether the match finishes normally, the total-sets line is a clean way to express uncertainty around the format rather than the winner.
The question is simple: in the Stuttgart Open match originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 4:00AM ET, will the official ATP record show at least three completed sets, or not? The market resolves Over 2.5 if the match reaches 3+ sets, and Under 2.5 if it ends in straight sets; a super tie-break counts as one set for this purpose. If the match starts but is not completed, or if it is canceled before play or delayed beyond seven days without a result, the market settles 50-50 instead of to either side.
This market exists because Paul and Mpetshi Perricard can create very different match shapes: Tommy Paul is generally associated with all-court baseline tennis, while Mpetshi Perricard is known for a big serve that can keep sets close and short. In ATP tennis, especially on faster grass conditions in Stuttgart, that combination can produce either a quick straight-sets result or a longer battle with one or more tight sets. The market is essentially pricing how likely it is that the match stays compact versus going the distance.
The biggest drivers are lineup and match-status updates: if the match is delayed, shortened, retired, or not completed, the 50-50 settlement rule becomes important. Once play starts, early set scores, tiebreak frequency, and whether either player is holding serve comfortably can quickly change expectations about a third set. Any official ATP scoreline that shows a super tie-break, retirement, or walkover-style outcome also matters because the rules treat those outcomes in a specific way.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the official ATP match result, because the market resolves from ATP statistics rather than commentary or third-party scoreboards. The key details to verify are whether the match actually began, whether it finished, and how many completed sets the official record shows, including whether a super tie-break was used. The deadline to keep in mind is June 15, 2026 at 08:00 UTC, after which an unresolved match can settle 50-50 under the market rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Tommy Paul vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: Total Sets O/U 2.5. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, $2.2K in 24h volume.
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Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 15, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the Stuttgart Open, originally scheduled for June 8, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP statistics.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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