Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $284.9K in 24h volume.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$284.9K
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
39.5%
Change
-18%
High
57.5%
Low
39.5%
Otto Virtanen moved from 57.5% to 39.5% over the full available history, trading between 39.5% and 57.5%.
Otto Virtanen price history from Polymarket CLOB.
8 points
This market is about a specific ATP tennis match in Birmingham between Otto Virtanen and Kamil Majchrzak, with settlement tied to which player officially advances. Because tennis results can change through straight-set wins, retirements, defaults, or cancellations, the exact way the match ends matters here as much as the scoreline itself. The market is also trading very heavily toward Virtanen, so readers should pay close attention to the official match status and any settlement-triggering edge cases.
The question is simple: who advances from the Birmingham match, Otto Virtanen or Kamil Majchrzak. The event was originally scheduled for June 6, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET, and the market resolves to the player who advances if the match is played and produces a winner. If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or is delayed more than seven days from the scheduled date without a winner, the market goes to 50-50 instead.
Tennis markets like this can stay uncertain until the final point because matches can be interrupted, a player can retire, or a scheduled match can be moved. Birmingham is a live tennis setting where the official ATP result matters more than informal score updates, especially when the resolution rules distinguish between a completed match, a retirement after play starts, and a walkover before play begins. That creates a concrete disagreement over not just who is stronger, but whether the match is completed under the market’s rules.
The biggest price movers are the match being officially confirmed, any lineup or scheduling change, and especially anything involving retirement, walkover, default, or postponement. If the ATP records a completed result, the market should settle on the advancing player; if the match is never played, or is pushed past the seven-day cutoff without a winner, that points to the 50-50 outcome under the rules. Even a pre-match withdrawal matters here because a walkover is treated differently from an in-match retirement.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Check the official ATP Tour match record first, since the rules name ATP information as the primary source of truth. The key ambiguity to watch is whether the match actually started, because a pre-start withdrawal is treated as a walkover and resolves to 50-50, while a retirement or disqualification after play begins resolves to the player who advances. Also verify the scheduled date window: if no winner is determined within seven days of the June 6, 2026 date, the market does not resolve to a player at all but instead to 50-50.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $284.9K in 24h volume.
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Otto Virtanen
100%
Kamil Majchrzak
0%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the tennis match between Otto Virtanen and Kamil Majchrzak in the Birmingham, originally scheduled for June 6, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Otto Virtanen' if Otto Virtanen advances against Kamil Majchrzak. This market will resolve to 'Kamil Majchrzak' if Kamil Majchrzak advances against Otto Virtanen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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