crypto
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?
24h Vol
$214K
Liquidity
$136.3K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketCrypto
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 44%, $15.4K in 24h volume, and $27.9K in liquidity.
Probability
44%
24h Volume
$15.4K
Liquidity
$27.9K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
61.5%
Change
+11.5%
High
61.5%
Low
47.5%
Down moved from 50% to 61.5% over the full available history, trading between 47.5% and 61.5%.
Down price history from Polymarket CLOB.
6 points
This market asks a very specific Bitcoin price question: will the Binance BTC/USDT candle at noon ET on June 8, 2026 close above or below the noon ET candle from the day before? Because the resolution depends on one exchange, one trading pair, and one exact timestamp, it is best read as a narrow Binance reference-price bet rather than a broad view of Bitcoin across the market.
The title, "Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8?", refers to the close of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle labeled Jun 8, 2026 12:00 ET compared with the Jun 7, 2026 12:00 ET candle. If the June 8 close is higher, the market resolves to "Up"; if it is lower, it resolves to "Down." If the two close prices are exactly equal on Binance, the market resolves 50-50. The deadline shown on the market is June 8, 2026 at 16:00 UTC, and the source of truth is the BTC/USDT chart on Binance with the 1m candles view.
This market exists because Bitcoin can move materially over a single day, and the exact outcome here depends on a very precise comparison of two noon candles rather than a simple end-of-day price. Readers may care because the result is tied to Binance’s own reported close, which can differ from other exchanges, and that makes the contract more about a defined reference price than about headline Bitcoin sentiment. The disagreement in the market is not about whether Bitcoin is generally volatile, but about which side the Binance noon-to-noon comparison will land on by the cutoff.
Any price move in BTC/USDT between the two noon ET timestamps can shift this market, especially sudden swings around the June 8 close on Binance. Large spot moves, sharp intraday reversals, or exchange-specific trading flows on BTC/USDT matter more here than broader crypto headlines because the resolution uses Binance’s candle closes only. If the market approaches the deadline with price hovering near the prior noon close, even a small final move on Binance can change the outcome.
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24h Vol
$214K
Liquidity
$136.3K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 44% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, the key thing to verify is the exact Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close for Jun 8, 2026 12:00 ET and the matching Jun 7 close, using the same chart settings described in the rules. Readers should check that they are looking at Binance’s BTC/USDT pair with "1m" and "Candles" selected, because prices from other exchanges or even other Binance views do not count. The main ambiguity risk is timestamp handling: the contract uses ET noon candles, so it is important to confirm the candle label and the final close value rather than a nearby price or a different timezone display.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8?. The market currently shows a live probability of 44%, $15.4K in 24h volume, and $27.9K in liquidity.
Track live crypto prediction markets covering Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, regulation changes, and major blockchain events across the prediction market ecosystem.
Up
43.5%
Down
56.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 44%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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