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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs FlyQuest (+3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 34%, $1.4K in 24h volume, and $11.7K in liquidity.
Probability
34%
24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$11.7K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
34%
Change
-10.5%
High
44.5%
Low
25.5%
paiN moved from 44.5% to 34% over the last week, trading between 25.5% and 44.5%.
paiN price history from Polymarket CLOB.
7 points
This market is about the first map of a Counter-Strike match between paiN and FlyQuest at IEM Cologne Major Stage 2. The question is not who wins the map or the series, but whether paiN can win Map 1 by four or more rounds, which makes the round margin the key point to watch.
The title sets a round handicap on Map 1: paiN is backed at -3.5 rounds and FlyQuest at +3.5. That means the market resolves to paiN only if paiN finishes Map 1 ahead by at least four rounds, counting overtime if it happens; any smaller paiN margin, a FlyQuest win, or a tied margin for the handicap side resolves to FlyQuest. The match is scheduled for June 7 at 10:30 AM ET, and the official resolution source is HLTV results for the completed map.
Round handicaps are often more uncertain than a simple match-winner pick because they depend on how close the opening map is, not just which team is stronger overall. In Counter-Strike, a team can win a map without covering a large round spread, especially if the map is competitive, goes to overtime, or features a late comeback. That makes this market a direct test of whether paiN can separate from FlyQuest early on Map 1.
Anything that affects the expected Map 1 gap can move this market, especially the actual map pick, veto order, and any roster or role changes that influence the first map more than the series overall. If one side is known to be much stronger on the selected map, or if the opener favors one team’s style, the handicap side can shift quickly. Once Map 1 starts, early round swing, pistol-round results, and whether the map looks likely to be close or one-sided will matter most.
The current market price implies roughly a 34% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketReaders should verify that Map 1 is actually played to completion, because the rules say a forfeit, walkover, disqualification, or cancellation can push the market to 50-50 instead of a team result. The score used is the final round total on Map 1 only, so the series winner and later maps do not matter. Since HLTV is the stated source of truth, the cleanest check is the official completed Map 1 score there, especially if the match is delayed, interrupted, or ends in an unusual way.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs FlyQuest (+3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 34%, $1.4K in 24h volume, and $11.7K in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
paiN
34%
FlyQuest
66%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between paiN and FlyQuest in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2, initially scheduled for June 7 at 10:30AM ET. This market is decided solely by the round score of Map 1 of this match, and is independent of which team wins Map 1 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN wins Map 1 by 4 or more rounds, including any overtime (i.e. paiN's round total on Map 1 exceeds FlyQuest's by 4 or more). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FlyQuest". Map 1 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to a team. If Map 1 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round score regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 1 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without Map 1 being completed, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 34%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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