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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs FlyQuest (+3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 23%, $30 in 24h volume, and $10.1 in liquidity.
Probability
23%
24h Volume
$30
Liquidity
$10.1
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
22.5%
Change
-27.5%
High
50.5%
Low
22.5%
paiN moved from 50% to 22.5% over the full available history, trading between 22.5% and 50.5%.
paiN price history from Polymarket CLOB.
3 points
This market is about the third map in a Counter-Strike match between paiN and FlyQuest at the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2. Because the wager is tied only to the Map 3 round margin, a narrow finish can matter just as much as who wins the map or the match. The scheduled start time and the possibility of a three-map series make this a live matchup to watch through the full veto and decider stage.
The question here is simple: on Map 3 of paiN vs FlyQuest, will paiN win by 4 or more rounds, or will FlyQuest cover a +3.5 handicap? The market is not about the match winner overall; it is decided only by the final round difference on Map 3, including overtime if it is played. The listed deadline is June 7 at 10:30 AM ET, and if Map 3 is not completed in rounds played, the market has special no-result rules.
Handicap markets like this stay uncertain because Counter-Strike maps can swing on vetoes, side choice, and one or two momentum rounds. paiN and FlyQuest are both teams that can produce competitive maps, so a four-round cushion is a meaningful threshold rather than a formality. The market is essentially pricing how wide the final Map 3 margin will be, not simply which roster looks stronger on paper.
Anything that changes the likelihood of a close or one-sided Map 3 can move this market, especially the earlier maps in the series and the map veto process that determines the decider. If the series reaches Map 3 on a map that strongly favors one side, that can shift expectations toward a bigger round spread; if the veto points to a balanced decider, the +3.5 side usually looks safer. Roster news, last-minute stand-ins, and official map or schedule changes for the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 are especially relevant because this market depends on the match being played to completion on the server.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 23% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is that Map 3 is actually played to completion and decided by rounds, because the rules say a forfeit, default, walkover, cancellation, or an incomplete map can trigger a 50-50 result instead. Readers should also check the official HLTV match page for the final Map 3 score, since that is the stated resolution source. If the match is delayed past the listed window or the series format changes in a way that prevents a completed Map 3, that can affect how the market resolves.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs FlyQuest (+3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 23%, $30 in 24h volume, and $10.1 in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
paiN
22.5%
FlyQuest
77.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between paiN and FlyQuest in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2, initially scheduled for June 7 at 10:30AM ET. This market is decided solely by the round score of Map 3 of this match, and is independent of which team wins Map 3 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN wins Map 3 by 4 or more rounds, including any overtime (i.e. paiN's round total on Map 3 exceeds FlyQuest's by 4 or more). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FlyQuest". Map 3 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to a team. If Map 3 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round score regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 3 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without Map 3 being completed, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 23%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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