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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 61%, and $734.1 in liquidity.
Probability
61%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$734.1
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
60.5%
Change
+7.5%
High
61%
Low
53%
Spirit moved from 53% to 60.5% over the full available history, trading between 53% and 61%.
Spirit price history from Polymarket CLOB.
3 points
This market asks whether Spirit will win the first map against 9z by at least four rounds in their IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 match. It is a narrow map-score question, so the result depends on the opening map only, not on who wins the series or how the later maps go.
The event is the Counter-Strike 2 match Spirit vs. 9z at the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2, scheduled for June 7 at 1:00 PM ET. The market resolves on Map 1’s final round score: Spirit wins this market if it finishes with a margin of 4 or more rounds, including overtime rounds, and 9z wins otherwise. The match title and timing matter because this is tied to a specific tournament stage, but the key resolution frame is just the completed Map 1 score.
There is uncertainty because a map handicap is much tighter than picking the match winner. A team can be favored overall and still fail to cover a 3.5-round margin if the map is close, so traders are weighing team strength, map selection, and how competitive 9z can be on the opening map. The market is essentially pricing whether Spirit can turn a likely advantage into a clear enough Map 1 win to clear the handicap.
Anything that changes expectations for Map 1 can move this market, especially the map veto, lineup news, or signs that one team is particularly comfortable on the selected map. In Counter-Strike, roster changes, stand-ins, role shifts, or patch and meta shifts can affect how big a round spread a team can create, even when the series outcome still looks straightforward. If the opening map is known before play starts, that information can matter a lot because some maps are naturally more volatile or more favored by one side than another.
The current market price implies roughly a 61% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe most important thing to verify is that Map 1 is actually played to completion and produces an official round score, because the market has a special 50-50 fallback if the map is not completed or is decided by forfeit, walkover, disqualification, or default. The stated source of truth is HLTV, and if HLTV has not posted final results within two hours after the event ends, the rules say a consensus of credible reporting can be used. Readers should also watch the scheduled start time and any delay beyond seven days, since that can affect whether the market resolves normally or to 50-50.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 61%, and $734.1 in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Spirit
61%
9z
39%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Spirit and 9z in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2, initially scheduled for June 7 at 1:00PM ET. This market is decided solely by the round score of Map 1 of this match, and is independent of which team wins Map 1 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins Map 1 by 4 or more rounds, including any overtime (i.e. Spirit's round total on Map 1 exceeds 9z's by 4 or more). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "9z". Map 1 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to a team. If Map 1 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round score regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 1 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without Map 1 being completed, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 61%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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