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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 35%, $728.6 in 24h volume, and $3.3K in liquidity.
Probability
35%
24h Volume
$728.6
Liquidity
$3.3K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
35%
Change
+4.5%
High
35%
Low
30.5%
Spirit moved from 30.5% to 35% over the full available history, trading between 30.5% and 35%.
Spirit price history from Polymarket CLOB.
3 points
This market is about the first map of Spirit vs. 9z at the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2, with the scheduled start listed for June 7 at 1:00 PM ET. The key question is not who wins the match, but whether Spirit can win Map 1 by 7 or more rounds, which is a much narrower margin than a simple match-winner bet.
The title, "Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5)," means the market is settled entirely by the final round score on Map 1. Spirit resolves if it finishes Map 1 at least seven rounds ahead; otherwise, the market resolves to 9z. The match itself is part of the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2, and the market is only about Map 1, not the rest of the series.
A handicap like -6.5 asks a different question than picking a winner, because a team can win a map without covering the spread. That makes roster quality, map choice, veto outcomes, and how one-sided the opening map looks especially important, since a tight map, a comeback, or a competitive overtime can all change the result even if Spirit still wins the map. The market is pricing disagreement over whether Spirit can create a big enough gap on the first map against 9z.
Anything that changes expectations for the opening map can move this market, especially the map veto, the likely first map selection, and any confirmed lineup or substitute changes before play begins. Once Map 1 starts, early round swings matter a lot, because a strong CT-side start, pistol-round win, or rapid half-time lead can make a 6.5-round margin more or less realistic. If the map goes close or reaches overtime, that tends to push the outcome toward 9z for this handicap.
The current market price implies roughly a 35% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe resolution depends only on the completed round score of Map 1, so readers should watch the official Map 1 result rather than the overall match score. The stated resolution source is HLTV, and the market rules say Map 1 must be played to completion for a normal decision; if the map is not played out, ends by forfeit/default, or the match is delayed too long without a completed Map 1, the market resolves 50-50. Because the rules are specific about official results and edge cases, it is worth checking the final map score and the exact completion status before assuming a winner.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 35%, $728.6 in 24h volume, and $3.3K in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Spirit
35%
9z
65%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Spirit and 9z in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2, initially scheduled for June 7 at 1:00PM ET. This market is decided solely by the round score of Map 1 of this match, and is independent of which team wins Map 1 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins Map 1 by 7 or more rounds, including any overtime (i.e. Spirit's round total on Map 1 exceeds 9z's by 7 or more). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "9z". Map 1 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to a team. If Map 1 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round score regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 1 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without Map 1 being completed, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 35%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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