Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $7.8K in 24h volume, and $13.1K in liquidity.

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This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 6, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 4 12:00 PM ET to July 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.