
-0.2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$110.8K
Liquidity
$43.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $422.7 in 24h volume, and $13.1K in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$422.7
Liquidity
$13.1K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will stay under 40 counted posts on X during a 48-hour window in mid-June 2026. It is worth watching because Musk’s posting cadence can change quickly, and the exact count depends on a very specific tracker-based rule set rather than a casual reading of his profile.
The event is defined around Elon Musk’s X account, @elonmusk, from June 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. A “Yes” result means the tracker records fewer than 40 counted posts in that period; a “No” result means 40 or more. The market counts main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, and it also counts replies when they appear as main-feed posts in the tracker’s logic, while some other reply activity and community reposts do not count.
This market centers on a simple but uncertain question: how active will Elon Musk be on X over a short, fixed stretch of time. Musk is one of the platform’s most high-profile users, so even small changes in how often he posts can matter to people following his public activity, media presence, or attention patterns. The market is pricing the disagreement around whether his output over that weekend will remain below the 40-post line set by the rules.
Price can move if Musk becomes especially active on X in the days leading into the window or during the window itself, since every counted post brings the total closer to the cutoff. Quote posts and reposts matter here just as much as ordinary main-feed posts, so bursts of resharing or commentary can change the outcome faster than readers might expect. Because deleted posts still count if the tracker captures them long enough, short-lived posts can also affect the final tally.
The current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

-0.2%
24h Vol
$110.8K
Liquidity
$43.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe key thing to verify is the tracker’s “Post Counter” figure at xtracker.polymarket.com, since that is the stated resolution source. Readers should check the exact time window, the post types included, and the special handling of replies, deleted posts, and community reposts, because those details determine the final count. If the tracker does not update correctly, X itself may be used as a backup source, so any ambiguity about what appears in the export data could matter at resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $422.7 in 24h volume, and $13.1K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
9.5%
No
90.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 11 12:00 PM ET to June 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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