culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$110.8K
Liquidity
$43.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $1.3K in 24h volume, and $9.1K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$9.1K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will post a fairly narrow number of times on X during a two-day window in June 2026. Because the count includes only certain kinds of posts and excludes replies, the exact tracker rules matter as much as Musk’s overall activity level.
The event is titled around Elon Musk and his posting volume on X from June 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market resolves to whether the tracker’s post count lands in the 140 to 164 range, using the rules in the description: main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count; replies do not count unless they appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker; community reposts are excluded.
This market is about the uncertainty in how active Musk will be on X over a short, defined period. Musk is a high-volume and highly variable poster, so even a two-day window can produce a wide range of outcomes depending on what he chooses to post, repost, or quote. The disagreement here is not about whether he uses X, but about whether his output during this specific window will fall inside a very precise band.
The biggest driver is Musk’s actual posting behavior once the June 11 to June 13 window begins: a burst of main-feed posts, quote posts, or reposts would push the count toward the target range, while a quieter period would make it miss. Changes in the tracker count itself can also matter, especially if deleted posts are still captured long enough to be included or if the tracker’s handling of replies and reposts affects the total. Since the market is tied to a fixed count range, even small differences in activity can change the outcome.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.2%
24h Vol
$110.8K
Liquidity
$43.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketReaders should watch the exact time window, since the market uses June 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, and the final count is based on the tracker’s ‘Post Counter’ on xtracker.polymarket.com. The description also sets important edge cases: replies generally do not count, deleted posts may still count if captured in time, and the tracker—not a casual manual tally—is the primary source of truth, with X itself only as a fallback if the tracker fails. Before resolution, the main thing to verify is whether the tracker’s exported data aligns with those rules and whether the final count is actually within 140 to 164 inclusive.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $1.3K in 24h volume, and $9.1K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.7%
No
99.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 11 12:00 PM ET to June 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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