
-0.2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$110.8K
Liquidity
$43.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $684.5 in 24h volume, and $9.3K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$684.5
Liquidity
$9.3K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will post a specific number of times on X during a tight three-day window in June 2026. Because the range is narrow and the counting rules are precise, the result depends less on broad behavior and more on his actual posting cadence during those 48 hours.
The question is whether @elonmusk will make 165 to 189 counted posts on X from June 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count under the rules; replies do not count unless they appear as main-feed posts that the tracker captures, and community reposts are excluded. Resolution comes from the Post Counter on xtracker.polymarket.com, with individual posts available through the tracker’s Export Data view, and X itself can be used if the tracker fails to update correctly.
This market is about a very public figure whose X activity can fluctuate widely from day to day, so there is real uncertainty about whether he will land inside this exact posting band. The disagreement here is not just whether he will post a lot, but whether his activity during that specific window will be high enough to reach 165 while not overshooting 189 under the tracker’s rules.
Price can move quickly if Musk enters an unusually active posting stretch, starts reposting heavily, or posts repeatedly in a concentrated burst that makes the target range look more or less reachable. The opposite can happen if his account goes quiet, if he mostly replies rather than posting on the main feed, or if the tracker’s counted total falls well short of the lower bound as the window progresses. Because deleted posts still count if the tracker captures them in time, short-lived posts can matter if they are recorded before removal.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

-0.2%
24h Vol
$110.8K
Liquidity
$43.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketReaders should watch the tracker’s Post Counter on xtracker.polymarket.com and confirm that the counted total reflects the rules for main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts only. The key deadline is June 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, so posts made after that cutoff do not count even if they appear shortly afterward. Any ambiguity is most likely to come from how replies, reposts, or deleted posts are captured, so the Export Data view and the secondary X source are the main things to verify if the tracker output looks inconsistent.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $684.5 in 24h volume, and $9.3K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.7%
No
99.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 11 12:00 PM ET to June 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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