Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

What this market is about

The question is simple: will @elonmusk reach 500 or more counted posts between June 2, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET? The market’s rules are specific about what counts: main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts are included, while ordinary replies are excluded unless they appear as counted main-feed activity in the tracker. Resolution comes from the “Post Counter” on xtracker.polymarket.com, with the tracker’s exported data used to inspect individual posts if needed.

Why the market exists

The uncertainty here is not about whether Elon Musk uses X, but about whether his posting pace will cross a very high threshold in exactly seven days. That makes the market sensitive to his public activity, how he uses reposts and quote posts, and whether any bursts of posting happen during the window. Readers following this page are essentially watching whether his output clears a dense, tracker-defined line that leaves little room for interpretation.

What can move the price

The market can move if Musk starts posting much more frequently than usual, especially through a mix of original posts, quote posts, and reposts that the tracker counts. Large swings are also possible if he is unusually active around major announcements, product updates, policy commentary, or other moments that typically draw heavy posting from him. Because the cutoff is exact and the threshold is high, even a noticeable but not extreme increase in activity may still leave the outcome far below 500.

How to read the current probability