
+0.2%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
24h Vol
$671.6K
Liquidity
$13.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $284K in 24h volume.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$284K
Liquidity
$0
This market asks whether Elon Musk will post between 40 and 64 times on X during a two-day window in June 2026. Because the result depends on a very specific count of posts, even a small change in posting pace can swing the outcome. It is a straightforward activity-count market, but the counting rules matter a lot here.
The question is whether @elonmusk’s activity on X from June 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 8, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET lands in the 40-to-64 range. Only main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count under the market rules; replies do not, except for replies that appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. The market resolves using the “Post Counter” on xtracker.polymarket.com, with individual posts available through “Export Data,” and X itself can be used if the tracker fails to update correctly.
Elon Musk is one of the most closely watched accounts on X, so his posting volume over a short period is both visible and unpredictable. The uncertainty is not about what he will say, but how active he will be in that exact 48-hour window and which posts the tracker will count. That makes this market a clean test of a specific behavior pattern rather than a broader opinion question.
Price can move quickly if Musk starts posting heavily, goes quiet, or shifts into long reply threads that do not count under the rules. Because reposts and quote posts count, a burst of resharing or commentary can push the total higher even without many original posts. Any apparent tracker mismatch, deleted post, or unusual X activity during the window could also matter, since the resolution source depends on the counter and then X itself if needed.
The current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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+0.2%
24h Vol
$671.6K
Liquidity
$13.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketReaders should check the exact time window first: the count runs from June 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET to June 8, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, not the calendar days in a loose sense. The key source of truth is the tracker’s “Post Counter,” along with the exported post list if there is any dispute over what counted. The biggest ambiguity risk is classification, especially around replies, reposts, and posts that were deleted after being briefly visible long enough for the tracker to capture them.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $284K in 24h volume.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
100%
No
0%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 6 12:00 PM ET to June 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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