
-1.5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$146.1K
Liquidity
$65.2K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $2.2K in 24h volume, and $7.1K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$2.2K
Liquidity
$7.1K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will post between 115 and 139 counted posts on X during a tightly defined three-day window in June 2026. It is worth watching because the answer depends on his actual posting rhythm, and the range is narrow enough that a modest change in activity could move the outcome.
The question is whether Elon Musk’s X account, @elonmusk, will register a total of 115 to 139 posts from June 8, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through June 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market counts main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts; replies do not count, except for replies that appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. The resolution source is the Post Counter on xtracker.polymarket.com, with X itself used only as a backup if the tracker does not update correctly.
The market is focused on a public figure whose posting volume can vary widely from day to day, so the uncertainty is not about whether he uses X, but how intensely he uses it during this specific window. Because the range is neither tiny nor extreme, traders are pricing a middle band of activity rather than a simple yes-or-no on whether he posts at all. The exact cutoff matters: a few extra reposts or quote posts could push the total into or out of the target range.
The price can move quickly if Musk becomes unusually active on X during the window, especially through a burst of reposts, quote posts, or main-feed replies that the tracker counts. Conversely, a quiet stretch, travel, or a shift toward posting less frequently would make the target range harder to reach. Since deleted posts still count if the tracker captures them long enough, brief posts that disappear may still affect the total.
The current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

-1.5%
24h Vol
$146.1K
Liquidity
$65.2K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe main thing to verify is how the tracker is counting posts against the rule set, especially the distinction between countable main-feed activity and non-counted replies or community reposts. Readers should also watch the exact resolution window, which ends at 12:00 PM ET on June 10, 2026, and check the Post Counter figure on xtracker.polymarket.com before the deadline. If the tracker looks incomplete or inconsistent, the market rules say X may be used as a secondary source for resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $2.2K in 24h volume, and $7.1K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
1.6%
No
98.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 8 12:00 PM ET to June 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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