Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?

What this market is about

The event is simple: if Hyperbeat launches a token and that token’s FDV is greater than $100 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, the market resolves to Yes. If the token never launches by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or if the FDV is at or below the threshold at the resolution time, it resolves to No. The market uses the most liquid price source available, and the token must be actively publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched.

Why the market exists

This market is about the early reception and implied scale of a new token at launch, which can vary a lot depending on supply, pricing, and how much interest the token attracts right away. The uncertainty is not just whether a token appears, but whether it can sustain a valuation above the $100 million line shortly after launch. Readers may care because the outcome depends on both the existence of a launch and the market’s immediate pricing of that launch.

What can move the price

The biggest drivers are whether Hyperbeat actually announces and completes a token launch, whether the token becomes tradable on a liquid venue, and what the first day’s price does relative to the stated supply. A launch with strong attention, limited circulating availability, or fast speculative demand could push the FDV higher; a quiet launch, thin trading, or weak pricing could keep it below the threshold. Any clarity from Hyperbeat’s official account about timing, token mechanics, or tradability would matter because those details affect whether the market can resolve at all.

How to read the current probability