Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch?

What this market is about

Hyperbeat appears to be the named project behind the X account @hyperbeat, and this market is about the first day of public token trading after launch. For resolution, the token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable, which means a private or non-tradable distribution would not count as a launch under these rules. If no token is launched by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.

Why the market exists

The core uncertainty is whether Hyperbeat will launch a token at all and, if it does, whether the market will value the token above the $200 million FDV threshold almost immediately. That matters because early token launches can vary widely in supply, float, and initial pricing, and those choices can make the FDV very different from the simple headline price people may see first. The market is effectively pricing the combination of launch timing, token economics, and early demand.

What can move the price

Anything that makes a token launch more or less likely can move this market, especially a public announcement from Hyperbeat or visible setup for transferable trading. If a token does launch, the first liquid trading venue and the early price action there will matter because the resolution uses the most liquid price source available at the 4:00 PM ET checkpoint one day later. Changes in token supply design, vesting, or liquidity can also affect FDV because the calculation uses total supply multiplied by price.

How to read the current probability