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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Game 4: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?. The market currently shows a live probability of 42%, and $237.2 in liquidity.
Probability
42%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$237.2
This market asks a very specific question about Game 4 in a League of Legends series between Anyone's Legend and Bilibili Gaming: will both teams secure at least one elemental dragon before the game ends? Because dragon control is one of the clearest early-to-mid game objectives in League, this is a useful angle for watching how the teams are playing the map, not just who wins the match.
The title refers to Game 4 only, and the resolution is based on whether both Anyone's Legend and Bilibili Gaming each slay at least one elemental dragon in that game. The market counts only the standard elemental dragons that spawn from 5:00 game time onward; Elder Dragon kills do not count, even if they happen later. If Game 4 is not played, is canceled, ends in a walkover, or is never needed because the series finishes earlier, the market resolves to 50-50 instead of Yes or No.
This is a narrow in-game question because dragon control can be split, traded, or denied depending on draft, lane priority, and how aggressively each side groups around objectives. Even in a close game, one team can end up taking every early dragon while the other focuses elsewhere, so the outcome is not automatic just because the game is competitive. The market is effectively pricing how likely it is that both teams participate in the dragon game at least once during this specific map.
Anything that changes expected map control in Game 4 can move this market: champion drafts that favor early skirmishes, strong priority in the bottom side, or compositions built to contest every neutral objective tend to make a Yes outcome more plausible. By contrast, a one-sided early game, a heavy split-push setup, or a fast surrender can leave one team without any elemental dragon and push the market toward No. Because the rule ignores Elder Dragons, the key thing to watch is not whether dragons eventually appear, but whether each side actually gets credited with at least one elemental dragon before the game ends.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 42% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The important source of truth is the official Game 4 result and the in-game objective timeline, especially dragon takedowns credited before any stoppage. Readers should verify that the match is actually played, that it reaches completion if possible, and that the game is not voided by a series result, forfeit, or delay beyond the seven-day window. If the game ends early or by surrender, the deciding detail is whether both teams had already claimed at least one elemental dragon before play stopped.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Game 4: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?. The market currently shows a live probability of 42%, and $237.2 in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Yes
42%
No
58%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market is about whether both teams slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 4. In League of Legends, elemental dragons (Infernal, Mountain, Ocean, Hextech, Chemtech, and Cloud) spawn in the dragon pit starting at 5:00 game time. After being slain, the next dragon spawns 5 minutes later. Once a team claims the Dragon Soul (by slaying four dragons), all subsequent dragon spawns become Elder Dragons. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Anyone's Legend and Bilibili Gaming each slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 4. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay any elemental dragon during Game 4. Only elemental dragons count toward this market — Elder Dragon kills do not count. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 4 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain at least one elemental dragon prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 4 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 42%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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