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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Game 4: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, and $0.2 in liquidity.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0.2
This market asks a very specific in-game question about Game 4 of a League of Legends series: will Cloud9 and LYON each take at least one elemental dragon before the game ends? Dragons are a major objective in League, so this is a clean way to track whether both teams are contesting the map rather than letting one side control every neutral objective.
The event is limited to Game 4 between Cloud9 and LYON, with resolution based only on that single game. To answer "Yes," both teams must each secure at least one elemental dragon; to answer "No," either team must fail to get any elemental dragon in Game 4. Only elemental dragons count here, and Elder Dragon kills do not count toward the result. The market is scheduled to resolve by the end date shown on the page, and if the game is not played, is canceled, or is otherwise not completed under the listed rules, it can resolve to 50-50 instead of Yes or No.
Dragon control in League of Legends often reflects how the early and midgame are going for each side. A market like this is not asking who wins the game, but whether both teams are able to find at least one meaningful objective take, which can happen in quiet games, scrappy games, or matches where one team dominates the map. The uncertainty comes from draft, team style, lane pressure, and whether the game develops into repeated dragon fights or a one-sided objective trade.
Anything that changes the likelihood of early dragon contests can matter here: draft choices that encourage fighting around bot side, compositions with strong skirmishing or disengage, and whether either team is likely to play for slow scaling rather than objectives. In-game, the first few dragon spawns are especially important because a team that gives up the early dragons may never get a clean take later. If the series format or match situation makes Game 4 unnecessary, that is also relevant because the market rules say an unplayed Game 4 can resolve to 50-50.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is that Game 4 is actually played and completed, since the rules treat cancellations, walkovers, delayed matches, and games that are never needed as special cases. For resolution, the source of truth is the official game record for Game 4: you want the objective history showing whether Cloud9 and LYON each secured at least one elemental dragon before the game ended. If the game ends early by surrender or another stoppage, the decisive detail is whether both teams had already taken an elemental dragon before play stopped.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Game 4: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, and $0.2 in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Yes
50%
No
50%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market is about whether both teams slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 4. In League of Legends, elemental dragons (Infernal, Mountain, Ocean, Hextech, Chemtech, and Cloud) spawn in the dragon pit starting at 5:00 game time. After being slain, the next dragon spawns 5 minutes later. Once a team claims the Dragon Soul (by slaying four dragons), all subsequent dragon spawns become Elder Dragons. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Cloud9 and LYON each slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 4. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay any elemental dragon during Game 4. Only elemental dragons count toward this market — Elder Dragon kills do not count. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 4 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain at least one elemental dragon prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 4 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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