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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
50%
Change
0%
High
53%
Low
40.5%
LYON moved from 50% to 50% over the full available history, trading between 40.5% and 53%.
LYON price history from Polymarket CLOB.
53 points
This market asks which side will draw the first blood in Game 4 of the LCS Playoffs upper bracket final between Cloud9 and LYON. It is a very specific in-game event, so the outcome depends on the pace and early decision-making of that one map rather than the series result overall.
The title refers to Game 4 of the Cloud9 vs. LYON match in the LCS Playoffs, scheduled for June 7 at 4:00 PM ET. “First blood” means the first kill of the game, and the market resolves to the team that gets that opening kill in Game 4. If the game is not played, is delayed too long, ends in a remake, or finishes without any first blood, the market rules describe fallback outcomes, including a 50-50 resolution in some cases.
Even in a high-level playoff match, the first kill is not predetermined because early lane matchups, jungle pathing, draft choices, and a single mistake can swing the opening minutes. Cloud9 and LYON are the named teams in a bracket final, so readers are really watching how those rosters handle the early game under playoff pressure. The market is pricing disagreement over which side is more likely to strike first if Game 4 happens as scheduled and plays out normally.
Anything that changes expectations for the early game in this exact match can move the market: draft decisions that favor aggressive lanes, a jungle pick that enables early ganks, or a bot lane setup that invites fights near level 1. If one team takes a more cautious composition, the other side may be seen as likelier to secure first blood; if the game is expected to be scrappy, the price can shift quickly. Because this is tied to Game 4 specifically, the surrounding series score and whether the teams are under elimination pressure can also matter as the match unfolds.
The current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe key things to verify are whether Game 4 is actually played, whether it is completed, and which official result source records the game details. The market rules say the primary resolution source is gol.gg, with credible reporting or video evidence used only if final results are not published within two hours after the match ends. Readers should also watch for remakes, stoppages, forfeits, or delays beyond seven days, since those situations can trigger a 50-50 outcome instead of a normal team resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Cloud9
50%
LYON
50%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming Upper bracket final match between Cloud9 and LYON in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 7 at 4:00PM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 4. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 4 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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