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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 41%, and $183.8 in liquidity.
Probability
41%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$183.8
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
43%
Change
-5.5%
High
59.5%
Low
32.5%
Dplus KIA moved from 48.5% to 43% over the last day, trading between 32.5% and 59.5%.
Dplus KIA price history from Polymarket CLOB.
48 points
This market asks a very specific question about Game 4 of the LCK Road to MSI Round 1 match between Dplus KIA and HANJIN BRION: which team draws first blood. In League of Legends, first blood is often an early sign of lane pressure, jungle pathing, or a successful setup, so this is a focused way to track how the fourth game unfolds even if the overall match outcome is different.
The event is the Round 1 match between Dplus KIA and HANJIN BRION in the LCK Road to MSI, with the market tied to Game 4 specifically. The winner here is not the team that wins the match, but the team that secures the first kill in that fourth game; if Game 4 is not fully played, the rules say the market follows the first blood if it happened, or resolves 50-50 if it did not. The listed deadline is June 6 at 4:00AM ET, and the official result source is gol.gg, with a backup to credible reporting or video evidence if final results are not posted quickly enough.
A first-blood market can stay uncertain even when one team looks stronger on paper, because early-game aggression, draft choices, jungle pressure, and lane matchups can all swing the opening minutes. Dplus KIA and HANJIN BRION are both well-known LCK names, and in a best-of series the fourth game can look very different from the first ones depending on adaptation, side selection, and how the series has evolved. Readers are watching not just who is favored in the series, but which side is more likely to control the first decisive fight or pick in Game 4.
Anything that changes expectations for Game 4 can move this market, especially the series score before that game, draft trends from earlier games, and whether one team has shown a reliable early-game setup. Roster changes, champion priority, or a switch in momentum from the first three games can matter a lot because first blood often comes from planned skirmishes rather than late-game strength. If the match reaches Game 4 with one team clearly adapting better to the patch or to the opponent’s style, that can tilt expectations toward the side more likely to strike first.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 41% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, check whether Game 4 is actually played and completed, since the rules treat cancellations, long delays, forfeits, and some unfinished games as 50-50 or as a first-blood-by-prior-play situation. The key source of truth is official result data on gol.gg, with video evidence or other credible reporting only if final results are not posted within the stated window. Because this is a first-blood market, the important ambiguity to watch is whether the opening kill happened before any remake or stoppage, and whether the official record clearly identifies which team earned it.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 41%, and $183.8 in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Dplus KIA
40.5%
HANJIN BRION
59.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 6, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming Round 1 match between Dplus KIA and HANJIN BRION in the LCK Road to MSI, initially scheduled for June 6 at 4:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 4. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 4 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 41%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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