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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $5 in 24h volume, and $10 in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$5
Liquidity
$10
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
0.5%
Change
-50%
High
52.5%
Low
0.5%
FlyQuest moved from 50.5% to 0.5% over the full available history, trading between 0.5% and 52.5%.
FlyQuest price history from Polymarket CLOB.
23 points
This market asks a very specific question inside the LCS Playoffs lower-bracket semifinal between FlyQuest and Team Liquid: who gets the first kill in Game 4. Because the rule keys off a single in-game event rather than the match winner, draft style, early jungle pathing, and lane pressure can matter a lot more than final scorelines here.
The event is the FlyQuest vs. Team Liquid lower-bracket semifinal in the LCS Playoffs, scheduled for June 6 at 4:00 PM ET. Resolution is tied only to Game 4 of that match: the market pays out to the team that secures first blood in that game, and if Game 4 is never played or cannot be completed under the stated rules, it can resolve 50-50 instead.
First blood is a narrow, high-variance outcome even in a single series, which is why people may disagree about which team is more likely to strike first in Game 4. The market is also shaped by the series context: a lower-bracket semifinal often brings pressure, adjustments between games, and possible roster or draft changes that can swing early-game priorities in either direction. Live market signals are heavily tilted toward Team Liquid, but the question itself still hinges on one early moment rather than the full match result.
Anything that changes the expected Game 4 draft or early tempo can move this market, especially if one side shows a clear edge in early skirmishes, jungle coordination, or lane setup through the first three games. If the series reaches Game 4 with one team already adapting better to the patch, side selection, or map openings, traders may reassess which roster is more likely to get the first kill. A remake, delay, or official change to the game result would matter as well, because the rules specify how first blood is handled in those edge cases.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketReaders should verify that the match is actually played on the scheduled date, that Game 4 starts, and whether any remake or stoppage occurs before the first blood event. The resolution source is official information from gol.gg, with credible reporting or video evidence only if final results are not posted within two hours after the event ends. The key ambiguity to watch is whether Game 4 is completed, remade, or interrupted, since those scenarios change whether the first blood from the original game or the remade game controls the outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $5 in 24h volume, and $10 in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
FlyQuest
0.5%
Team Liquid
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming Lower bracket semifinal match between FlyQuest and Team Liquid in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 6 at 4:00PM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 4. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 4 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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