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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
50%
Change
-1%
High
61%
Low
47%
G2 Esports moved from 51% to 50% over the last week, trading between 47% and 61%.
G2 Esports price history from Polymarket CLOB.
11 points
This market asks a very specific question about the LEC Playoffs grand final between G2 Esports and Karmine Corp: which team will draw the first blood in Game 4. In League of Legends, first blood is the first kill of a game, so the market is tied to early-game pressure, lane matchups, and how aggressively each team plays that map. The date matters because the market is tied to this exact scheduled final and to Game 4 specifically, not the series overall.
The event is the grand final of the LEC Playoffs, scheduled for June 7 at 11:00 AM ET, and the outcome is limited to Game 4 of G2 Esports vs. Karmine Corp. The question is simple: if Game 4 is played to completion, which side secures the first kill in that game. If the match is canceled, delayed too long, forfeited, or Game 4 ends with no first blood, the rules say the market can resolve to 50-50 instead of naming a winner.
There is real uncertainty because first blood depends on draft, lane matchups, jungle pathing, and the teams’ willingness to force fights early. In a best-of series, Game 4 can also look different from earlier games if one side is adapting to the other or if the series state changes the way both teams approach risk. The market is pricing that specific split-second edge between G2 and Karmine Corp, not just who is likelier to win the series.
Anything that changes how Game 4 is expected to start can move this market, especially draft patterns that favor early skirmishes, strong level-one setups, or aggressive jungle pressure. Roster changes, substitutions, or a visible shift in how either team has been playing the series can matter because first blood often comes from coordinated early movement rather than late-game strength. If the match format changes, the schedule slips, or there is a remake, cancellation, or stop-start game state, those details can matter directly under the resolution rules.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$15.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to verify is whether Game 4 is actually played, completed, remade, or stopped early, because the resolution rules treat each of those cases differently. The stated source of truth is official results on gol.gg/esports/home, with credible reporting and video evidence only if final results are not posted within two hours after the event ends. Readers should also check the final series state, because this market is only about first blood in Game 4 of the grand final, not the match winner or first blood in earlier games.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
G2 Esports
50%
Karmine Corp
50%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming Grand final match between G2 Esports and Karmine Corp in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 7 at 11:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 4. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 4 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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