esports
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2%
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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, and $203.4 in liquidity.
Probability
30%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$203.4
This market asks a very specific League of Legends question about Game 1 between JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming: will both sides take Baron Nashor at least once? Baron is one of the most important late-game objectives in LoL, so this is a good shorthand for whether the game turns into a long, back-and-forth macro battle rather than ending before the objective comes into play.
The matchup named in the title is JD Gaming versus Bilibili Gaming, and the outcome is tied only to Game 1 of the series. Baron Nashor first appears at 20:00 game time, so both teams must survive long enough and control enough of the map to secure it at least once each for the answer to be Yes. If either team never slays Baron in that game, or if the game ends before that happens, the market resolves No unless the special 50-50 exceptions in the rules apply.
There is real uncertainty because not every LoL game lasts long enough for Baron to matter, and even in longer games one team may control the objective the whole time. JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming are established Chinese esports organizations, which makes the title a shorthand for a high-level pro match where draft, tempo, and team-fight execution can swing objective control. The market is essentially pricing whether Game 1 becomes a game of repeated Baron contests or a cleaner, shorter finish.
Anything that changes how long Game 1 is likely to run can move this market, especially draft choices that favor scaling, waveclear, or slow siege rather than early snowballing. In-game developments such as a decisive early lead, repeated picks, or one team taking a commanding map position make it less likely that both sides will ever get Baron once; a slower, even game makes the Yes case stronger. If the series format, substitutions, or any pre-game roster changes affect the teams’ style, those can matter too, because objective-heavy games are more likely when both teams can contest into the late game.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 30% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important details to verify are that Game 1 is actually played, completed, and not remade, because the rules treat cancellations, forfeits, walkovers, and unplayed games as 50-50 in several cases. Resolution comes from official results on gol.gg, so the key question is whether that source records both teams having slain Baron Nashor during the remade or completed Game 1. Since the market closes on 2026-06-06 at 15:00 UTC, readers should pay attention to the match start time, whether the game reaches the 20-minute Baron window, and whether any unusual stoppage changes the result under the stated rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, and $203.4 in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Yes
30%
No
70%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 6, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market is about whether both teams slay the Baron Nashor at least once during Game 1. Baron Nashor is a powerful neutral objective in League of Legends that first spawns at 20:00 game time and respawns 6 minutes after each death, granting the slaying team the Hand of Baron buff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming each slay Baron Nashor at least once during Game 1. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay Baron Nashor during Game 1. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain Baron Nashor prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 30%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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