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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 3?. The market currently shows a live probability of 48%, and $348.1 in liquidity.
Probability
48%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$348.1
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
48.5%
Change
-1.5%
High
57.5%
Low
46.5%
JD Gaming moved from 50% to 48.5% over the last day, trading between 46.5% and 57.5%.
JD Gaming price history from Polymarket CLOB.
48 points
This market asks a very specific esports question: in Game 3 of the LPL Playoffs lower bracket quarterfinal between JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming, which team will draw first blood? Because it depends on one early in-game event rather than the match winner, it can move separately from the broader view of who is favored in the series.
The match listed here is JD Gaming vs. Bilibili Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, scheduled for June 6 at 5:00 AM ET. The market resolves to the team that secures the first kill in Game 3, not the team that wins the series. If Game 3 is never played, is stopped before first blood, or is canceled or delayed beyond the stated window, the market can resolve to 50-50 under the rules.
First blood is a small but meaningful early-game checkpoint in League of Legends, and it can hinge on draft, lane matchups, jungle pathing, or an early mistake. JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming are both established LPL teams, so this is the kind of matchup where readers may disagree about who is more likely to control the first few minutes of Game 3. The market is pricing that uncertainty directly rather than asking who is better overall in the series.
Anything that changes expectations for the early game in Game 3 can matter here, especially team composition, lane priority, and how aggressive each side looks in the opening minutes. If the series score, draft trends, or player substitutions suggest one team is likely to play faster or safer in Game 3, that can shift views on who gets first blood. Because the market is tied to a single game, even a remade map, a pause, or an unusual start to Game 3 can affect how the outcome is resolved.
The current market price implies roughly a 48% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe key things to verify are simple: whether JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming actually play Game 3, whether first blood happens before any stoppage or remake, and which team gets credited for it on the official result source. The market says resolution will come from gol.gg, with credible reporting or video evidence only if final results are not posted there within two hours after the match ends. Readers should also watch the delay and cancellation rules closely, since a no-show, long postponement, or uncontested finish can push the outcome to 50-50 rather than a team result.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 3?. The market currently shows a live probability of 48%, and $348.1 in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
JD Gaming
47.5%
Bilibili Gaming
52.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 6, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 6 at 5:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 3. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 3 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 3 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 3 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 3 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 48%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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