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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Game 4: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?. The market currently shows a live probability of 41%, and $213.1 in liquidity.
Probability
41%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$213.1
This market asks a very specific question about Game 4 of a League of Legends series between JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming: did both teams manage to take at least one elemental dragon in that game? Dragons are a major objective in LoL because they shape map control, teamfighting, and late-game win conditions, so this is a narrow but meaningful in-game milestone to watch.
The outcome depends on Game 4 only, not the full series result. It resolves to Yes if JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming each secure at least one elemental dragon during the game; it resolves to No if either side fails to take one. Only elemental dragons count here, so Elder Dragon kills do not count toward a Yes resolution, and if Game 4 is not played or is abandoned under the listed rules, the market can resolve 50-50 instead.
This market captures a matchup-specific question that can swing on draft, lane priority, jungle control, and how long the game stays contested. Some games feature both teams trading objectives early, while others are decided so cleanly that one side never gets a dragon at all, which is why the answer is uncertain even before champion select. The price is effectively tracking whether this particular Game 4 looks like a balanced, objective-heavy contest or a one-sided finish.
Anything that changes the expected shape of Game 4 can matter, especially lineup or draft information that suggests stronger early-game pressure, better dragon setup, or faster scaling into objective fights. In practical terms, a more aggressive composition, stronger bot-side setup, or a series context that points to a long, back-and-forth game would make it more plausible that both teams take at least one dragon. A stomp, early surrender, or a game where one team controls the map from start to finish would push toward No.
Related markets

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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 41% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is whether Game 4 is actually played to completion, because the market has special 50-50 rules if the game is canceled, delayed beyond seven days, decided before Game 4 is needed, or never completed for certain reasons. For a normal finished game, the source of truth is the game state itself: only elemental dragon kills by JD Gaming or Bilibili Gaming count, and Elder Dragons do not. Readers should also keep in mind that the result is based on what happened in Game 4 only, so Game 1-3 objective totals do not matter.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Game 4: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?. The market currently shows a live probability of 41%, and $213.1 in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Yes
40.5%
No
59.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 6, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market is about whether both teams slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 4. In League of Legends, elemental dragons (Infernal, Mountain, Ocean, Hextech, Chemtech, and Cloud) spawn in the dragon pit starting at 5:00 game time. After being slain, the next dragon spawns 5 minutes later. Once a team claims the Dragon Soul (by slaying four dragons), all subsequent dragon spawns become Elder Dragons. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming each slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 4. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay any elemental dragon during Game 4. Only elemental dragons count toward this market — Elder Dragon kills do not count. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 4 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain at least one elemental dragon prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 4 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 41%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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