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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, and $23 in liquidity.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$23
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
50%
Change
+0.5%
High
51%
Low
46.5%
Bilibili Gaming moved from 49.5% to 50% over the last month, trading between 46.5% and 51%.
Bilibili Gaming price history from Polymarket CLOB.
12 points
This market asks which side will draw first blood in Game 4 of the Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 between JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming in the LPL Playoffs. Because it is tied to a specific game inside a best-of series, the answer depends on how the match unfolds rather than the overall series winner.
The event is the LPL Playoffs match between JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming, initially scheduled for June 6 at 5:00 AM ET. The resolution is narrow: it will go to the team that secures the first kill in Game 4 only, not the team that wins the map or the series. If Game 4 is not completed, is remade, or ends in a special circumstance, the market follows the rules in the description, with 50-50 used in the cancellation, walkover, or no-first-blood cases spelled out there.
First blood is a small but meaningful early-game edge in League of Legends, and in a playoff series like this, the opening moments of one specific map can hinge on draft, jungle paths, lane matchups, and early skirmishes. JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming are both established LPL names, so a matchup between them is the kind of playoff game where viewers may reasonably disagree about who gets the better start in a later map. The market is pricing that uncertainty in Game 4 specifically, not the broader strength of either roster across the whole series.
Anything that changes expectations for Game 4 can move this market: side selection, draft style, whether one team tends to play for early river control, and how aggressively either roster typically looks for level-one or early-jungle pressure. If the series reaches Game 4 after a long or unusual Game 3, that can also matter, because teams sometimes shift away from early fights or, conversely, become more willing to force them. Because the contract only cares about the first blood in that one game, even a small change in expected opening pathing can matter more here than in a normal match-winner market.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should confirm that Game 4 is actually played and completed, since the rules treat cancellations, walkovers, forfeits, and delayed matches differently from a normal finished map. The official source listed is gol.gg/esports/home, with credible reporting or video evidence only as a fallback if final results are not posted within two hours after the event ends. The key ambiguity to watch for is whether Game 4 is remade or stopped before completion, because the contract specifies exactly how first blood is handled in those edge cases.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, and $23 in liquidity.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
JD Gaming
50%
Bilibili Gaming
50%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 6, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between JD Gaming and Bilibili Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 6 at 5:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 4. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 4 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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