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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, $3.4 in 24h volume.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$3.4
Liquidity
$0
This market asks a very specific question inside the LEC Playoffs lower bracket final: which side gets the first kill, or “first blood,” in Game 4 of Movistar KOI vs. Karmine Corp. Because the market is tied to a single game in a playoff series, even small draft, lane, or early-pathing differences can matter a lot. The matchup itself is important because a lower bracket final is usually do-or-die territory, and by Game 4 both teams have had time to adapt to each other’s style. That makes the first minutes of the fourth game especially worth watching.
The event here is the Lower bracket final match between Movistar KOI and Karmine Corp in the LEC Playoffs, scheduled for June 6 at 11:00 AM ET. The market resolves to the team that secures first blood in Game 4, meaning the first champion kill in that specific game. If Game 4 is not fully played, is remade, is delayed beyond seven days, or never happens because of cancellation, forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the rules can push resolution to 50-50 in some cases. The official results source is gol.gg, with credible reporting or video evidence only as a backup if final results are not posted promptly.
This market exists because first blood is a narrow, early-game event that can swing depending on draft, lane matchups, jungle route, and how aggressively each team wants to start the game. In a playoff series, teams often change their approach from game to game, so the answer in Game 4 may not match what happened earlier in the match. Readers may care because Movistar KOI and Karmine Corp are established names in European League of Legends, and a lower bracket final usually comes with added pressure and adaptation. The market is not asking who wins the game or the series; it is focused only on which side lands the opening kill in that one specific map.
Any information that changes expectations for Game 4’s early game can move this market, especially draft news, champion picks, or signs that one team is prioritizing early skirmishes. In League of Legends, first blood often depends on whether a team drafts stronger early lanes, a more active jungle path, or safer scaling compositions that may avoid early fights. Because this is tied to Game 4, the state of the series also matters: if one side is on match point or coming off a strong early-game showing in the previous game, traders may expect a more or less aggressive opening. Official pauses, remakes, or unusual match progression can also matter because the rules specify how first blood is handled in those edge cases.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, the key things to verify are that Game 4 is actually played, whether it finishes normally, and which team officially gets first blood in the game record. The market’s source of truth is gol.gg, so the clearest check is the official match page and final game log once the game concludes. If there is a remake, the rules say to use the first blood from the original attempt if it happened before the remake; otherwise, the remade game controls resolution. The main ambiguity to watch for is whether the game was completed, restarted, or abandoned, because those scenarios can change the outcome or force a 50-50 result under the market rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, $3.4 in 24h volume.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Movistar KOI
50%
Karmine Corp
50%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 6, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming Lower bracket final match between Movistar KOI and Karmine Corp in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 6 at 11:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 4. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 4 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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