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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Game 4: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
This market asks a very specific League of Legends question: in Game 4 of Top Esports vs Team WE, will both sides manage to take Baron Nashor at least once? Because Baron is a late-game objective that often depends on game length, map control, and teamfight outcomes, this is the kind of prop that can swing on how contested the game becomes rather than on who wins the series overall.
The event is Game 4 of a Top Esports (TES) vs Team WE (WE) series, and the outcome depends only on that single game. Baron Nashor first appears at 20:00 game time and respawns after it is killed, so both teams would need to secure it at least once before the game ends for the market to resolve to Yes. If either TES or WE fails to slay Baron in Game 4, the market resolves to No.
This market prices uncertainty around how long and how chaotic the fourth game will be. In some League of Legends games, one team closes out quickly and Baron never matters; in others, both teams trade control of the map and the objective becomes part of the deciding sequence. The disagreement here is really about whether Game 4 will reach a state where both teams get a turn on one of the most important neutral objectives in the game.
Anything that changes the expected length or volatility of Game 4 can matter, especially draft, roster choices, and whether the teams’ styles suggest fast snowballing or extended objective trading. If the series is already trending toward one-sided games, that can reduce the chance of both teams reaching Baron; if the matchup looks close and late-game oriented, the chance rises. Because this market is only about one map, even pregame information like starting lineups, substitutions, or unusual draft priorities can be relevant if they point toward slower or more contested play.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is whether Game 4 is actually played and completed, since the rules send canceled games, delayed games beyond seven days, forfeits, walkovers, and games that never happen because the series ends early to 50-50. For settlement, the source of truth is official result information from gol.gg, so readers should check the final Game 4 match record there if the game ends normally. If the game is remade, only the remade version counts, and if the game ends early through surrender, the condition still depends on whether both teams had already slain Baron before stoppage.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Game 4: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Yes
50%
No
50%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market is about whether both teams slay the Baron Nashor at least once during Game 4. Baron Nashor is a powerful neutral objective in League of Legends that first spawns at 20:00 game time and respawns 6 minutes after each death, granting the slaying team the Hand of Baron buff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Top Esports and Team WE each slay Baron Nashor at least once during Game 4. This market will resolve to "No" if either team (or both teams) does not slay Baron Nashor during Game 4. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 4 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether both teams had slain Baron Nashor prior to stoppage. If the condition was not met, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 4 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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