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Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketEsports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
50%
Change
+3.5%
High
54.5%
Low
44.5%
Top Esports moved from 46.5% to 50% over the last 6 hours, trading between 44.5% and 54.5%.
Top Esports price history from Polymarket CLOB.
25 points
This market asks a very narrow question inside the LPL Playoffs upper bracket final: which side will draw first blood in Game 4 between Top Esports and Team WE. Because the wager is tied to one specific map rather than the whole series, it depends on how that single game starts, not on who wins the match overall.
The event is the Upper bracket final in the LPL Playoffs, scheduled for June 7 at 5:00AM ET, with Top Esports facing Team WE. The contract resolves to the team that gets the first kill in Game 4, and if Game 4 ends with no first blood, the result is 50-50; the same fallback applies if the match is not played, Game 4 never happens, or the game is canceled or delayed beyond the stated window. Because this is a map-specific market, the series format and whether the match reaches a fourth game are part of what makes the outcome meaningful.
Even in a marquee playoff series, the opening kill in one game can go either way. The market is pricing a very specific kind of uncertainty: whether Top Esports or Team WE will be the team that takes the first successful fight, lane pick, or jungle skirmish that produces first blood in Game 4. That uncertainty is shaped by team draft style, early-game priorities, and how the series has unfolded before that point, but the contract itself only cares about the first blood event in that one game.
Anything that changes expectations about how Game 4 will begin can affect this market, especially if the series score makes a fourth game more or less likely. Drafts that favor aggressive early lanes, jungle pathing, or strong level-one skirmish setups can tilt expectations toward one side, while slower scaling compositions can make first blood harder to forecast. If the match ends before Game 4, or if official results show that Game 4 was remade, stopped, or never completed, the resolution rules become the key issue rather than in-game momentum.
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24h Vol
$653.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to verify is whether the series actually reaches Game 4 and whether that game is completed under the normal rules. For resolution, the source of truth is official information from gol.gg/esports/home, with credible reporting or video evidence used only if final results are still unavailable two hours after the event ends. Readers should also pay attention to the market’s special rules for cancelation, delay, remake, forfeit, and missing first blood, since those scenarios can override the simple question of which team was first to draw blood.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for First Blood in Game 4?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%.
Track live esports prediction markets focused on competitive gaming tournaments, team performance, championship events, and major esports forecasting trends.
Top Esports
50%
Team WE
50%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming Upper bracket final match between Top Esports and Team WE in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 7 at 5:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 4. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 4 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is not available in the current feed, so treat the displayed snapshot as incomplete.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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