Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks?. The market currently shows a live probability of 16%, $23.1K in 24h volume, and $14.9K in liquidity.
Probability
16%
24h Volume
$23.1K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
84.5%
Change
0%
High
84.5%
Low
84.5%
Soto moved from 84.5% to 84.5% over the last 6 hours, trading between 84.5% and 84.5%.
Soto price history from Polymarket CLOB.
25 points
This market asks which superstar hitter will finish the 2026 MLB regular season with more walks: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto. It is worth watching because both players are elite at getting on base, but they do it in different ways, and the gap can swing with playing time, lineup protection, and how pitchers choose to attack them over a full season.
The settlement compares Aaron Judge’s and Juan Soto’s regular-season walk totals from the 2026 MLB season. The market resolves to Judge if he ends the season with more walks; otherwise it resolves to Soto, with tie-breakers based first on intentional walks and then on on-base percentage if needed. If the season is cut short or statistics are incomplete, the rules say to use completed-game MLB stats, and the listed deadline is the end of the 2026 regular season on September 28, 2026.
Judge and Soto are two of the most walk-friendly hitters in baseball, so the question is not whether either one will draw plenty of free passes, but which one will finish ahead after six months of games. Their season-long totals can be influenced by injuries, rest days, batting order position, and whether one team’s opponents are more willing to pitch around a dangerous bat. The market is pricing a genuine comparison between two patient, high-OBP stars rather than a simple yes-or-no event.
Any change in playing time can matter quickly: an injury, a short IL stint, or extended rest for either player could reduce plate appearances and walk opportunities. Batting order changes also matter, since hitters behind stronger lineups may see different strike zones, and intentional walks become relevant if one player is being avoided in key situations. Official MLB stat updates during the 2026 season are the main driver, especially if one player starts pulling away in walk rate or total plate appearances.
Related markets
The current market price implies roughly a 16% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, readers should watch the official MLB regular-season walk totals for both players and make sure the statistics are being counted only for completed games through the season cutoff. The rules also specify a tie-break chain: intentional walks first, then on-base percentage, and finally a 50-50 result if the stated tie cannot be broken. Because the resolution uses official MLB information, the key thing to verify is whether the season finishes normally and whether both players’ final totals are clear within the 2026 regular-season window.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks?. The market currently shows a live probability of 16%, $23.1K in 24h volume, and $14.9K in liquidity.
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Judge
15.5%
Soto
84.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Sep 28, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Judge” if Aaron Judge finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more walks than Juan Soto. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Soto". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with more intentional walks during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher on base percentage. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the 2026 MLB season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available MLB statistics for completed games. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player had more walks within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 16%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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