Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $11.1K in 24h volume, and $13.1K in liquidity.
Probability
7%
24h Volume
$11.1K
Liquidity
$13.1K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
95.5%
Change
+34%
High
95.5%
Low
61.5%
Tampa Bay Rays moved from 61.5% to 95.5% over the full available history, trading between 61.5% and 95.5%.
Tampa Bay Rays price history from Polymarket CLOB.
6 points
This market asks whether the Boston Red Sox will cover a 1.5-run spread against the Tampa Bay Rays in an upcoming MLB game on June 8 at 6:40 PM ET. It is worth watching because baseball spreads often hinge on bullpen usage, late scoring, and whether a game stays close into the final innings.
The question is not simply who wins; it is whether Boston wins by at least two runs. If the Red Sox win by exactly one run, lose, or the game ends in a tie, the market resolves to Tampa Bay Rays. The listed game is Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays, and the settlement follows the official final result of that specific matchup, with postponement and cancellation handled according to the rules in the description.
Run-line outcomes in MLB can differ from the straight moneyline because one-run games are common, especially between division opponents like Boston and Tampa Bay. That creates uncertainty around margin rather than just winner, which is what this market is pricing. The current trading setup also suggests a relatively close view of the matchup, with the market moving around a narrow range.
Starting lineups, late scratches, pitching changes, and bullpen availability can all shift expectations about whether Boston can win by multiple runs. Early scoring matters too: a quick lead for either side changes how likely a game is to stay within one run or open up into a multi-run margin. If the game is postponed, traders will need to watch the makeup date on the home team’s MLB.com schedule, because the market stays open until the game is completed.
The current market price implies roughly a 7% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Before the market settles, check the official final score of the June 8 Boston-Tampa Bay game and confirm whether it ended as a completed MLB game, a postponement, or a cancellation. The key settlement rule is simple: Boston must win by 2 or more runs for the Boston Red Sox outcome, while any other result goes to Tampa Bay Rays. If no official final statistics are published within 24 hours, the market can rely on consensus credible reporting, so the exact final game status and score are the main things to verify.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $11.1K in 24h volume, and $13.1K in liquidity.
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Boston Red Sox
7%
Tampa Bay Rays
93%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 7%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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24h Vol
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Liquidity
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Spread
1%
7/6/2026
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