Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $6.5K in 24h volume, and $12.5K in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$6.5K
Liquidity
$12.5K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
8%
Change
-12%
High
21%
Low
8%
Boston Red Sox moved from 20% to 8% over the last day, trading between 8% and 21%.
Boston Red Sox price history from Polymarket CLOB.
48 points
This market asks whether the Boston Red Sox will beat the Tampa Bay Rays by at least four runs in their June 8 MLB game. Because the spread is set at -3.5, a normal one-run or two-run win is not enough for Boston here; the Red Sox need a fairly lopsided result for this side to resolve.
The event is the MLB matchup between Boston and Tampa Bay scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET, and the settlement depends on the final official score of that game. If the Red Sox win by 4 or more runs, the market resolves to Boston Red Sox; if they win by 3 runs or fewer, lose, or if the game ends tied, it resolves to Tampa Bay Rays. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is completed, and if it is canceled with no makeup, it resolves 50-50.
Run-line markets like this one focus on margin rather than simply who wins, so there can be meaningful disagreement even when one team is viewed as more likely to win outright. Boston and Tampa Bay are familiar AL East opponents, and that division context matters because these teams often play close, high-leverage games where one late inning can swing a spread outcome. The market is basically pricing whether Boston can separate from Tampa Bay enough to clear a 3.5-run threshold.
The biggest movers are the usual baseball variables tied to the actual game: starting pitchers, bullpen availability, lineup strength, and any late scratches or injury news before first pitch. Once the game starts, early scoring, pitcher changes, and whether one side builds a multi-run lead quickly will have the most direct effect on this spread. Because the settlement requires a four-run Boston win, a competitive game that stays within a few runs generally pulls toward Tampa Bay on this market.
The current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Before this settles, readers should confirm that the game was actually played to completion and, if there was a postponement, whether MLB and the home team’s schedule list a makeup game. The source of truth is the official final statistics recognized by the league or event organizers, with credible reporting only used if final stats are not published within 24 hours after the game ends. The main ambiguity to watch for is a weather delay, suspension, or canceled game, since that changes whether the market stays open or resolves 50-50.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $6.5K in 24h volume, and $12.5K in liquidity.
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Boston Red Sox
10%
Tampa Bay Rays
90%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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