Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $9.1 in 24h volume, and $886.2 in liquidity.
Probability
7%
24h Volume
$9.1
Liquidity
$886.2
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
5%
Change
-11%
High
16%
Low
5%
Boston Red Sox moved from 16% to 5% over the last month, trading between 5% and 16%.
Boston Red Sox price history from Polymarket CLOB.
5 points
This market is about whether the Boston Red Sox can cover a 4.5-run spread against the Tampa Bay Rays in their June 8 MLB matchup. To settle in favor of Boston, the Red Sox must win by 5 or more runs; anything else, including a one-run win or a tie, goes to Tampa Bay under the market rules.
The title names a standard baseball run line: Boston Red Sox (-4.5). That means the question is not who wins outright, but whether Boston wins by a large enough margin in the scheduled game against the Tampa Bay Rays, listed for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET. The market resolves based on the official final result of that game, and if the game is postponed it stays open until the makeup game is completed.
A baseball spread like -4.5 is harder to hit than a moneyline win, so the market is really asking how lopsided this specific matchup will be. Fans and market participants may disagree over whether Boston has enough offense, whether Tampa Bay can keep the score close, and how the game script might unfold over nine innings. Because the settlement depends on margin of victory rather than the winner alone, even a strong favorite can fail to cover.
Anything that changes expectations for scoring margin can move this market: the announced starting pitchers, late lineup changes, bullpen availability, weather that affects run scoring, or a team resting key hitters. In-game, early runs, a short outing from either starter, or a blowup inning can shift the outlook quickly because the Red Sox would need a five-run cushion by the final out. If the game is postponed, attention shifts to the makeup date rather than the original schedule.
The current market price implies roughly a 7% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
Readers should verify the official final score for the June 8 Boston-Tampa Bay game, because that is the primary source of truth for settlement. If the game is delayed or postponed, the market stays open until the makeup game is played, and if the game is canceled with no makeup, it resolves 50-50 under the posted rules. The main ambiguity to watch for is whether an official final statistics page is published promptly; if not, the rules allow credible reporting after 24 hours. The live market is currently leaning toward Tampa Bay, which suggests traders expect Boston to fall short of the 5-run margin unless the game turns unusually one-sided.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $9.1 in 24h volume, and $886.2 in liquidity.
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Boston Red Sox
7%
Tampa Bay Rays
93%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game by 5 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 7%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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7/6/2026
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7/6/2026
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