Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $25.7K in 24h volume, and $11.6K in liquidity.
Probability
28%
24h Volume
$25.7K
Liquidity
$11.6K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
34%
Change
+3%
High
36%
Low
31%
Tampa Bay Rays moved from 31% to 34% over the last month, trading between 31% and 36%.
Tampa Bay Rays price history from Polymarket CLOB.
6 points
This market is about the run line for the Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays game on June 8 at 6:40 PM ET. The question is not just who wins, but whether Tampa Bay wins by at least two runs, which is why the spread matters more than the straight-moneyline result.
The title says "Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)," so the Rays need to win by 2 or more runs for that side to resolve. If Boston wins, if Tampa Bay wins by exactly one run, or if the game ends tied, the market resolves to Boston Red Sox. If the game is postponed, it stays open until the makeup game is completed; if the game is canceled with no makeup, it resolves 50-50.
A run-line market can look very different from a simple winner market because baseball games often come down to one-run margins, late bullpen usage, and lineup availability. That creates a genuine split in expectations over whether Tampa Bay can win comfortably enough to cover -1.5 rather than just scratch out a close victory.
Starting lineups, late scratches, pitcher changes, and bullpen availability can all change how likely a two-run Tampa Bay win looks. Because the settlement depends on the official final score, late rallies, extra innings, or a one-run finish can flip the outcome even if one team appears to control most of the game. Any postponement notice or makeup-game scheduling update would also matter here under the market rules.
The current market price implies roughly a 28% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key things to verify are the official final score, whether the game was completed, and whether any postponement or cancellation changed the settlement path. The market uses official final statistics from the event organizers as the primary source, with credible reporting only if final stats are still unavailable after 24 hours. If the game is not played on June 8, readers should check the home team’s schedule on MLB.com for the makeup date, since that is what determines when this market closes.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $25.7K in 24h volume, and $11.6K in liquidity.
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Tampa Bay Rays
28%
Boston Red Sox
72%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 28%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
