Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $2.1K in 24h volume, and $21.6K in liquidity.
Probability
17%
24h Volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$21.6K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
22%
Change
+0.5%
High
31%
Low
18%
Tampa Bay Rays moved from 21.5% to 22% over the last 6 hours, trading between 18% and 31%.
Tampa Bay Rays price history from Polymarket CLOB.
25 points
This market is about the June 8 MLB matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox, with the Rays listed at -2.5 runs. In plain English, the question is whether Tampa Bay can win by at least three runs, not just whether it wins outright. Because run-line markets hinge on margin, late bullpen decisions, lineup changes, and a single big inning can matter a lot.
The settlement rule is straightforward: the market resolves to Tampa Bay Rays if the Rays beat the Red Sox by 3 or more runs in the scheduled game. If Boston wins, if the game ends tied, or if Tampa Bay wins by exactly 1 or 2 runs, the market resolves to Boston Red Sox. The listed game time is June 8 at 6:40 PM ET, and the rules also say postponed games stay open until a makeup game is completed.
This market exists because a team can be favored to win the game while still failing to cover a larger run line like -2.5. That makes the question more specific than a moneyline bet: readers are asking not just who wins, but whether Tampa Bay wins convincingly enough. The pricing reflects that uncertainty, with the market currently leaning toward Boston to cover the alternative outcome.
Starting pitchers, lineup rest days, and any last-minute scratches can move a run-line market quickly because they change how likely a team is to score early and build a cushion. In a game like this, one side getting a stronger bat in the order or a weaker bullpen behind a starter can shift expectations for a multi-run margin. If the game starts and one team jumps ahead by several runs, the market can also move sharply as the in-game score changes the cover probability.
The current market price implies roughly a 17% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key things to verify are the official final score, whether the game was completed on June 8 or postponed, and whether a makeup game was added later. The primary source of truth is the official final statistics recognized by MLB or the event organizers, with credible reporting only used if final stats are not published within 24 hours after the game ends. If the listed game is canceled with no makeup, the rules say the market resolves 50-50, so that distinction matters as much as the score itself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $2.1K in 24h volume, and $21.6K in liquidity.
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Tampa Bay Rays
17%
Boston Red Sox
83%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game by 3 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 17%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
