Sports
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $2.7K in 24h volume, and $10.3K in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$2.7K
Liquidity
$10.3K
Chart outcome
Switches which outcome price history is shown.
Current
12.5%
Change
-10%
High
24.5%
Low
8.5%
Tampa Bay Rays moved from 22.5% to 12.5% over the last hour, trading between 8.5% and 24.5%.
Tampa Bay Rays price history from Polymarket CLOB.
13 points
This market is about whether the Tampa Bay Rays can beat the Boston Red Sox by 4 runs or more in their June 8 MLB game. Because the line is set at Rays -3.5, it is not enough for Tampa Bay to simply win; they need a lopsided victory for the market to settle to the Rays side. That makes the final score margin, not just the winner, the key thing to watch.
The title refers to a run-spread market on the upcoming Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays game scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET. Under the posted rules, the market resolves to "Tampa Bay Rays" only if Tampa Bay wins by at least four runs; any other result, including a one-run, two-run, or three-run Rays win, resolves to "Boston Red Sox." If the game is tied, it also resolves to Boston, and if the game is postponed or canceled, the settlement follows the specific makeup-game and 50-50 rules in the description.
Run-spread markets like this focus on margin of victory, which can be much more volatile than a simple moneyline outcome. Boston and Tampa Bay are division opponents, so the score can hinge on starting pitching, bullpen usage, and whether one team can keep the game close late or pull away in the middle innings. The disagreement priced here is not just who wins, but whether Tampa Bay can create enough separation on the scoreboard to cover a 3.5-run margin.
Official lineup announcements, late scratches, or a change in the starting pitcher can matter a lot in a spread this large because they affect both run production and run prevention. Early scoring, especially a multi-run first few innings, can quickly change how likely a team is to win by four or more, while a tight low-scoring game will usually work against the Rays -3.5 side. If the game is postponed, the make-up scheduling note in the rules becomes important, since the market stays open until the game is actually completed.
The current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, the most important source is the official final game result as recognized by MLB, because that determines the winning margin. Readers should check whether the game is completed as scheduled or moved to a makeup date, since postponed games do not settle immediately under these rules. If there is any unusual delay in official final stats, the market description says credible consensus reporting may be used after 24 hours, so the exact final score and official status are the main details to verify.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5). The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $2.7K in 24h volume, and $10.3K in liquidity.
Track live sports prediction markets focused on championships, tournaments, player performances, team outcomes, and major sporting events worldwide.
Tampa Bay Rays
10%
Boston Red Sox
90%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for June 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game by 4 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
